Theorema Bayes

Lumen nei caeruleum formam simplicem theorematis Bayes monstrans

Theorema Bayes in theoria probabilitatum et statistica est theorema quod describit eventûs probabilitatem, fundatam in scientia priore condicionum quae cum hoc eventu coniunctae sint. Exempli gratia, si morbus cancer (morbus) cum aetate coniuncta sit, possumus ex aetate hominis probabilitatem illius eventûs, quod hic homo cancrum habeat, computare.

Una ex multis usibus theorematis Bayes est inferentia Bayesiana, genus inferentiae statisticae.

Bibliographia

• Bruss, F. Thomas (2013). "250 years of ‘An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chance. By the late Rev. Mr. Bayes, communicated by Mr. Price, in a letter to John Canton, A. M. F. R. S.". Jahresbericht der Deutschen Mathematiker-Vereinigung (Springer Verla) 115 (3-4): 129-133 
• Gelman, A; Carlin, JB; Stern, HS; Rubin, DB (2003). Bayesian Data Analysis (secunda ed.). CRC Press 
• Grinstead, CM; Snell, JL (1997). Introduction to Probability (secunda ed.). American Mathematical Society 
• McGrayne, SB (2011). The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes’ Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines & Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy. Yale University Press. ISBN 978-0-300-18822-6 
• Laplace, P (1774/1986). "Memoir on the Probability of the Causes of Events". Statistical Science 1 (3): 364–378 
• Lee, Peter M (2012). Bayesian Statistics: An Introduction (quarta ed.). Wiley. ISBN 978-1-118-33257-3 
• "Bayes’ theorem". Nature Methods 12 (4): 277–8. 31 March 2015 
• Rosenthal, Jeffrey S (2008). Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities. Granta. ISBN 9781862079960 
• Stigler, SM (1986). "Laplace’s 1774 Memoir on Inverse Probability". Statistical Science 1 (3): 359–363 
• Stone, JV (2013). Bayes’ Rule: A Tutorial Introduction to Bayesian Analysis. Sebtel Press, England 
• Bayesian Reasoning for Intelligent People
• Morris, Dan (2016). Bayes' Theorem Examples: A Visual Introduction For Beginners. Blue Windmill. ISBN 978-1549761744 

Nexus externi

• The Theory That Would Not Die by Sharon Bertsch McGrayne New York Times Book Review by John Allen Paulos on 5 August 2011
• Visual explanation of Bayes using trees (video)
• Bayes’ frequentist interpretation explained visually (video)
• Earliest Known Uses of Some of the Words of Mathematics (B). Contains origins of “Bayesian,” “Bayes’ Theorem,” “Bayes Estimate/Risk/Solution,” “Empirical Bayes,” and “Bayes Factor.”
• Weisstein, Eric W. "Bayes' Theorem". MathWorld. 
• Bayes Theorem and the Folly of Prediction
• A tutorial on probability and Bayes’ theorem devised for Oxford University psychology students
• An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes' Theorem by Eliezer S. Yudkowsky